Chapter 32 · Worked solutions
Chapter 32 workings: Why You'll Probably Still Lose (and How to Stop It Costing You)
Chapter thirty-two worked: booksum, overround and margin on an 8/11, 12/5, 7/2 market, the firm's expected take on £250,000, and a staking review.
Overround is booksum minus one; margin is the share of a fairly spread stake the firm expects to keep, 1 − 1 ÷ booksum. They are different numbers and both get called the margin.
The exercises
8/11, 12/5, 7/2 and £250,000
Booksum, overround and margin, then the expected take on £250,000 spread in line with the true chances.
Implied
8/11 is 11/19 = 57.89%; 12/5 is 5/17 = 29.41%; 7/2 is 2/9 = 22.22%.
Booksum and overround
109.53 per cent, so an overround of 9.53 per cent.
Margin
1 − 1 ÷ 1.0953 = 8.70 per cent.
Take
£250,000 × 0.0870 = £21,749.
The answer
Booksum 109.53 per cent, overround 9.53 per cent, margin 8.70 per cent; expected take about £21,749.
One stake that grew for the wrong reason
Find one bet in your last three months whose size changed because of the previous result.
Where to look
Your log, or the template on the bet-tracking reference page. Sort by date and look for a stake that jumped after a loss or after a winner.
Write the sentence
Name the bet, and say what a limit agreed in advance, such as a fixed share of the bank, would have staked instead.
The answer
Your own sentence; the point is to write one.
Related on this site
These are the workings. The argument for them, and the exercises themselves, are in chapter 32 of the book, Why You'll Probably Still Lose (and How to Stop It Costing You).
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