THE STAT MAN

Chapter 22 · Worked solutions

Chapter 22 workings: The Data Chapter

Chapter twenty-two worked: league home and away goal averages from a specimen eight-match slice, and the overround on an average-odds column.

Both answers are the inputs other chapters assume you already have: the league baselines for the Poisson model and the margin in the price column you will compare against.

The exercises

  1. Baselines and overround from a small file

Baselines and overround from a small file

From eight specimen results, find the league home and away goal averages; then the overround on average prices of 1.85, 3.60 and 4.50.

  1. Home goals

    1+2+0+3+1+2+1+4 = 14; 14 ÷ 8 = 1.75.

  2. Away goals

    0+1+2+0+1+1+3+0 = 8; 8 ÷ 8 = 1.00.

  3. Overround

    1/1.85 + 1/3.60 + 1/4.50 = 1.0405, so 4.1 per cent.

  4. Before trusting it

    Eight matches is a teaching sample. Build the averages from a full season, and check the join between results and prices row by row.

The answer

Home 1.75, away 1.00; overround 4.1 per cent.

Open this in the Poisson predictor

These are the workings. The argument for them, and the exercises themselves, are in chapter 22 of the book, The Data Chapter.

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