THE STAT MAN

Chapter 21 · Worked solutions

Chapter 21 workings: Home Sweet Home (Less So)

Chapter twenty-one worked: halve the home-advantage gap in the chapter 16 match and see how far the prices move.

The league baseline is 1.35 goals a side. Chapter 16 placed home sides 0.15 above it and away sides 0.15 below. Halving the gap gives 1.425 and 1.275; the team ratings stay the same.

The exercises

  1. Half the home advantage

Half the home advantage

Rerun the chapter 16 match with league averages of 1.425 home and 1.275 away.

  1. New λ

    1.425 × 1.30 × 1.15 = 2.130375, 5 per cent lower.

  2. New μ

    1.275 × 1.10 × 0.90 = 1.26225, 6.25 per cent higher.

  3. Reprice

    Same grid, same sums, as in the table.

The chapter 16 match with half the home advantage
ResultFull home advantageHalvedChangeFair price
Home61.17%57.26%−3.9 pts1.75, about 8/11
Draw19.62%20.64%+1.0 pts4.85, about 4/1
Away19.21%22.10%+2.9 pts4.52, about 7/2

The answer

Home 57.3 per cent, draw 20.6 per cent, away 22.1 per cent: about four points move out of the home column.

Open this in the Poisson predictor

These are the workings. The argument for them, and the exercises themselves, are in chapter 21 of the book, Home Sweet Home (Less So).

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