THE STAT MAN

Appendix A · A.4

Rule 4 deduction bands

How much a Rule 4 takes out of your winnings when a runner is withdrawn, by the price that runner was trading at.

Rule 4 docks winnings, never stake, when a runner is withdrawn after you have backed a price on the rest of the field; the deduction scales with how short the withdrawn horse was, because a shorter price took more of the market's probability out with it. The two ends of the scale and the cap are the well-established anchor points; the bands in between are indicative rather than the precise current Tattersalls table, which changes from time to time and is worth a check at the bookmaker's own terms page before you rely on it to the penny.

Withdrawn horse's priceDeduction from winnings
1/9 or shorter90p in the pound
Around evens45p in the pound
Around 3/125p in the pound
Middle-distance prices (roughly 5/1 to 8/1)10p in the pound
10/1 to 14/15p in the pound
Longer than 14/1No deduction

Multiple withdrawals from the same race accumulate, but never past a total deduction of 90p in the pound; your stake always comes home regardless. A worked settlement: £10 on an 8/1 winner, with a 3/1 shot withdrawn beforehand triggering the 25p band. Winnings of £80 become £80 × 0.75 = £60, and the £10 stake returns on top: £70 back rather than £90.

This is reference lifted from the book. The chapters are where the arithmetic gets built and argued for.

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