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Figure 16.2 · Chapter 16

Poisson versus reality

Where the plain Poisson model gets football wrong.

A comparison of Poisson-predicted and actual scoreline frequencies.

Figure 16.2 from The Stat Man, Chapter 16.

Total goals in a match: the naive Poisson model against the reality-calibrated distribution, per cent
Total goals	Naive Poisson	Reality-calibrated
0	3.2	4.1
1	11.1	9.4
2	19.0	19.9
3	21.8	21.8
4	18.7	18.7
5	12.8	12.8
6 or more	13.3	13.3

Figure 16.2 from The Stat Man by Adrian Dane, Chapter 16. Free to quote with attribution.

This is reference lifted from the book. The chapters are where the arithmetic gets built and argued for.

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