Figure 16.1 · Chapter 16

The correct-score matrix

One Poisson distribution priced across the whole scoreline board.

Figure 16.1 from The Stat Man, Chapter 16.

Correct-score probabilities, per cent, home goals down the side and away goals across the top
Home goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.24	3.85	2.28	0.90	0.27	0.06
1	7.26	8.62	5.12	2.03	0.60	0.14
2	8.14	9.67	5.74	2.27	0.68	0.16
3	6.08	7.23	4.29	1.70	0.50	0.12
4	3.41	4.05	2.41	0.95	0.28	0.07
5	1.53	1.82	1.08	0.43	0.13	0.03

Figure 16.1 from The Stat Man by Adrian Dane, Chapter 16. Free to quote with attribution.

This is reference lifted from the book. The chapters are where the arithmetic gets built and argued for.

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